A Fistful of Euros is making predictions: “Kosovo will get some sort of independence, Belgrade and Moscow will cry foul, there will be a certain amount of huffing and puffing… and then, not much. The borders will stay open; the lights will stay on. The medium-term effect will be to create a sort of Balkan Taiwan, recognized by some states but not by others.”
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How abgout K albs declare independence, K Serbs declare independence in North, ethnic cleansing of Presovo, KFOR tries to pacify Northern K Serbs only to be met with Russians.
That is, only if the Kosovo precedent really is NOT in Russia’s interest. If it is in Russia’s interest to see this precedent established, then your scenario is likely.