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Predictions and Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India

This post is part of the Global Voices special coverage on the Indian Elections 2009

The month long general elections to the 15th Lok Sabha in India start from April 16, and there is wide speculation on which party, or coalition, will emerge the winner, when the results are announced on May 16th.

Here is a quick roundup of the pre-election predictions and the discussion around them in the Indian blogosphere.

According to the second Star-Nielsen poll, the Congress will win 155 seats (203 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 147 seats (191 with NDA allies) (via TOI).

Arun Nehru at the Deccan Chronicle predicts that the Congress will win 157 seats (193 with UPA allies), compared to the 132 seats for the BJP (177 with NDA allies).

The Times of India predicts that the Congress will win 154 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will win 135 seats (176 with NDA allies).

According to The Week, the Congress will win 144 seats (198 with UPA allies), while the BJP will have to settle at 140 seats (186 with NDA allies).

India Today expects the UPA to win 196-205 seats, far ahead of the 172-181 seats for the NDA.

According to Reuters, the Congress with 139 seats will form the government, beating the BJP, which will win only 129 seats.

DNA predicts that the Congress-led UPA will win 184 seats, against the 177 seats for the BJP-led NDA.

Shreekant Sambrani at Business Standard predicts that BJP will emerge as the biggest party with 137 seats (184 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 119 seats (176 seats with UPA allies, including LJP/ RJD).

India TV also predicts that the BJP will emerge as the largest single party with 144 seats (187 seats with NDA allies), ahead of the Congress, which will win 133 seats (178 seats with UPA allies).

According to BJP's own survey, conducted by G V L Narasimha Rao, the BJP will win 160 seats (217 with NDA allies) compared to 135 seats for the Congress (180 with UPA allies) (via TOI).

The numbers for the UPA have come down in recent predictions as analysts aren't counting the numbers for Lalu Prasad’s RJD, Ram Vilas Paswan’s LJP or Mulayam Singh’s SP as part of the alliance anymore.

Earlier, in March, the Star-Nielsen poll had predicted that Congress will win 144 seats (257 with UPA allies, including 47 for SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to the 137 seats for the BJP (184 with NDA allies) (via Reuters).

The CNN-IBN poll had predicted that the Congress-led UPA will win 215-235 seats (including SP/ RJP/ LJP), compared to 165-185 seats for the BJP-led NDA (via Reuters).

In 2004, the UPA had won 234 seats (with 145 seats for the Congress) and the NDA had won 184 seats (with 138 seats for the BJP).

The Outlook Blog written by Sandeep Dougal, by the way, has emerged as my single most useful source of news and opinion on the Indian Lok Sabha elections. This is a great example of the value a traditional news organization can add by linking out to others.

Several Indian bloggers are also posting their own predictions.

Vijay at OffStumped, an overtly pro-BJP blog, predicts that NDA will win 184 seats compared to 108 for UPA.

Blogger Arvind Katoch predicts that UPA will win 230-240 seats where NDA can win 180-200 seats.

Promise of Reason is also doing a series of state-wise pre-poll predictions for the Indian elections.

Rajesh Jain, who is also a part of the Friends of BJP group, has also been sharing his assessment of how the elections might turn out and believes that we will see another election in two years.

It seems that the consensus opinion is that the Congress will emerge as the largest party with 150-160 seats, while the BJP will win 130-140 seats. In any case, fewer parties will ally with the BJP, and it will need 175+ seats to have a stab at building a majority coalition, so we can safely assume that the Congress will be a part of the coalition government. Most observers are predicting that a Congress-led UPA-Left coalition will form the government.

Cross-posted on Gauravonomics, my blog on social media and social change.

25 comments

  • [...] A shorter version of this piece is cross-posted at Vote Report India and Global Voices. [...]

  • ABHIJEET

    I just hope that a congress led govt. comes at the centre. I sincerely hope that congress will muster around 13-15 seats out of the 20 in the state of kerala.

  • GN Singh

    Yes ! Congress should win if this nation has to be saved from so called statesman who are mere orators.

  • Kumar

    I hope Congress will lose to save this Nation from the anti-nationals and terrerists. I also hope (?) the regional parties will lose hold on the central government.

  • vibhaas

    This election should result in something of a mess. Whomsover forms the govt will be at a big disadvantage. Ideally the best thing for India from security standoint is NDA as congress is going to be hampered on acting on this because of its political base.

  • God willing, Congress will be Routed, due its own Performance and False Promises. National Party
    - BJP plus Allies will Take Control!

  • I wish BJP shd. come to power.Common man hopes, he would be more benefited by bringing the bare necesities under control if BJP comes to power.All these days, UPA`s
    ruling we have seen. It is nothing but HELL
    L K Advani, is more capable, active, sensible
    projected Prime Minister.He does, what he says.
    VOTE FOR BJP FOR GOOD GOVERNANCE
    & PROSPERITY.

    • Raja

      We don’t want a terrerist as a Prime minister of INDIA

      • Tanveer

        So dear who do u think is going to be the terrorist PM?
        L.K.A or Modi or who?
        I don’t think an intellectual like M Singh is a Terrorist.
        I wish Mr. Singh to lead again.

  • satya

    The congress should be denied to form the government at the center as it cannot do much for the security of the country to appease its vote bank. I feel that we should venture out of our houses and vote on the day as this is the only time when we have the “say”. Or else we wont be having any moral right to complain for anything that happens.

  • Del

    Congress should win in center. The way congress is leading India it’s excellent.

  • hariprasad

    more than 50 % are underweight,
    worlds highest poverty ridden country,
    most corrupt country,
    lost haif of j&k to china,
    thousands of acre land to china,
    hopeless judiciary lakhs of cases pending for years & years,
    sick foreign policy,
    dirty caste quota,
    dirty religion quota,
    bring back this congress party and go to hell,
    binasha kale biparitta buddhi.

  • Ritesh

    BJP is the future, all these congressmen need to understand that only BJP led states have shown development, whenever change is required, only BJP has done it, Congress just fight to save their seat.

  • darshan nc

    the bjp will maintain its supremecy in karnatka again by atleast 18 out of 28 seats. ex prime minister Deve gowda led janata dal (secular) will do better then the last elections by around 4-5 seats…. but again the congress will be the looser in the state by its internal issues…

  • Impartial Observer

    Congress performance in last 5 years has been pathetic. There is nothing to talk about. Congress will lose this election badly, despite with the biased Indian media (including Gaurav Mishra) says.

  • Dr. Anil Khari, M.D.

    The congress will emerge as single largest party by winning at least 158 seats far ahead of BJP with 121 seats and UPA will form the next Goverment. Mr. Rahul Gandhi will be the new elected Prime Minister as Manmohan Singh may not accept the offer on Health ground.
    Many young generation leaders will be included in the cabinet.
    people seems not ready accepting Mr. L.K Advani as the right choice for PM. He is the headache for B.J.P having only one gole to be PM.
    All looks so set . We can expect some thing good for the bright future of India, this way.

  • Raj

    Raja, reading your reply I think we definitely need the BJP. For once real literacy will spread, like it is spreading in Gujarat and people can start spelling terrerists correctly as terrorists.

    As for terrorist PM..well the Congress created terrorists in both Punjab & Kashmir by appeasement and vote bank politics. Congress is also responsible for Hindu pogrom in Kashmir, Bangla Infiltration in India, loss of Tibet to China, losing Occupied Kashmir to Pak and the rise of Naxals over the decades.

    You just hope that a terrorist does not become a PM, I pray that the pro-terrorist party does not come back again.

  • For the country progress, NDA need to be in government……..congress was governing INDIA for past 50 years….what they did..????? we are still loking for shining INDIA ???….only BJP can make INDIA shining…..!!! so vote for BJP…………….

    • Basudeb Dash,Orissa

      this country has been ruined by congress.Vote BJP and see the difference and yes vote plz.We dont vote thats why people like Lalu win.

  • Basudeb Dash,Orissa

    Congress is not surely the worst,but UPA is the worst with corrupted and irresponsible ministers like Lalu,Paswan,Ramdoss,Arjun Singh,TR balu etc.I am surprised by the way Rahul Gandhi is raising issues like Kandahar,black money in swiss bank etc.UPA doesnt think of future.they think short term plans where their netas get benefit.
    So I request 2 vote 4 NDA which thinks of long term plans like infrastructure,terrorism,black money,good governance and yes DEVELOPMENT.

  • Tarun Yadav

    Congress! Congress! Congress! what is going to happen in our country, one of the biggest party of india Congress has given us what, POVERTY, ILLITERACY, UNEMPLOYMENT, DIVIDE AND RULE POLICY, CASTESIZM, VOTE BANK POLICY, MINORITY POLICY, TWO LAW FOR ONE COUNTRY J&K ISSUE, SOO MANY HIKE IN PRICE THAT IS STILL GOING, JUST PUT THIS CONGRESS PARTY IN THE EARTH AND BURRIED THEM FOREVER SO THAT THEY NEVER EVER THINK TO DO THESE DIRTY FLIRTS WITH OUR POOR BROTHERS AND SISTERS OF THE NATION WHO IS VERY INNOCENT.

  • Vipin Baj

    Dear all Congress person’s congraculation the way our youth leader Rahul ji’s compain and sepcially in Rajastha State where ever Rahul ji visit the youth inspair after a long time in jaipur seat goes to congress and the leader is Mr Mahesh Joshi I am very Haoppy and congrats to Mr. Mahesh ji and the leader of the greate Chief Minister Mr. Ashok Gahalot ji once again people satisfaction reflect the real image of the good leader, that’s the result infornt of us
    regards.
    Vipin Baj,
    Jaipur

  • […] Predictions and Polls for the 2009 Lok Sabha Elections in India […]

  • Josey Devan

    AgencyPublish DatePredictionsCNN-IBN – Dainik Bhaskar13 May 2009UPA 185–205, NDA 165–185, Third Front 110–130, Fourth Front 25–35[53]Star-Nielsen13 May 2009UPA 199, NDA 196, Third Front 100, Fourth Front 36[53]India TV – CVOTER13 May 2009UPA 189–201, NDA 183–195, Third Front 105–121[53]Actual Results16 May 2009UPA 262, NDA 159, Third Front 79
    Election phases[edit]

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