Global Voices » Vadim Sadonshoev

Tajikistan: New Year, New Energy Crisis

Vadim Sadonshoev — Mon, 02 Feb 2009 07:02:11 +0000

Until recently, most parts of Tajiksitan have had almost no electricity: only six hours a day. But at least what came during those six hours was steady. Now, the situation becomes worse.

Turkmenistan cut off electricity for Tajiksitan in the beginning of the year due to an ongoing disagreement between the latter and Uzbekistan on transit electricity prices. neweurasia reports on the conflict between the two countries:

Uzbekistan is demanding 10 percent of the $0.03 per kilowatt paid by Tajikistan to Turkmenistan. The Caspian Sea state was contracted to deliver 1.3 billion kilowatts of electricity to Tajikistan for December 2008-January 2009. Turkmenistan suspended electricity exports during transit negotiations between the Tajiks and Uzbeks. In the absence of an agreement, the exports have not been resumed.

Meanwhile, the electricity monopolist Barqi Tojik reported that beginning from January 27th all major cities, including Dushanbe, will undergo electricity rationing. This comes as quite a shock since this past Fall President Rahmon promised the population of the capital and other major cities that electricity rationing would not happen.

neweurasia has published the general details of the rationing program for Dushanbe:

From now on Dushanbe will receive electricity only 15 hours a day. The schedule is not prepared yet but most probably the city won’t be provided with electricity 6 hours during the nights (from 11 pm to 5 am) and 3 hours during the days.

This was reported by most of the media agencies. However, for the time being Dushanbe still has electricity; Barki Tojik probably decided to use the remaining water in Nurek reservoir for generating of electricity.

Rahmon's original decision was made in favor of urban populations: there are more apartment-buildings in the cities which are difficult to heat during the winter. In comparison, houses in the countryside have alternative heating in the form of wood, coal etc. He was confident that the electricity from Turkmenistan would be enough to live out this winter. However, things change quickly in the Central Asian energy market.

Michael Hancock from Registan observed the latest development; confused, he is wondering precisely what is going on:

Uzbekistan has shut off the gas to Tajikistan, and now Turkmenistan isn’t sending electricity. Personally, I find the infrastructure systems of Central Asia very confusing. Thanks to the Soviet Union, the republics originally were intertwined. Perhaps this was to further the Soviet goal of unity and solidarity, but now it just makes it that much more difficult when countries decide to cut each other out.

Matt Stone from The Global Buzz thinks that the recent developments in Central Asia are part of a bigger conflict between Russia and the West. According to his logic, in order to prevent the Central Asia energy exporting countries from involvement in the construction of the Nabucco pipeline, Russia has made agreements with these countries to buy gas for higher prices – “European prices”.

Regardless of whether Stone is correct, what's clear is that Russia's decision has had a cascading effect: Uzbekistan decided to raise prices of gas for Tajiksitan and Kyrgyzstan from $145 to $240 this year. Stone interprets the decision of Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan to cut off gas and electricity simultaneously as a signal to Tajiksitan:

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are the source of most of Central Asia's drinking and irrigation water. Both Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan rely heavily on water from the high mountains of Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to irrigate their vast cotton fields, an important export for both countries. Jointly tightening the screws on Tajikistan could send the message that they have leverage over Dushanbe in the event that it restricts the flow of water downstream.

Tajikistan now finds itself with little electricity and gas. This endangers the social, political and economic stability of the entire country. If the import of Turkmen electricity is not restored shortly, Tajikistan will be flung into a humanitarian catastrophe.

Also posted on neweurasia.

Tajikistan: Olympics Blogwatch

Vadim Sadonshoev — Wed, 06 Aug 2008 05:14:12 +0000

One of the major events in the world of sports is going to happen in Beijing during the coming month. Almost all the countries are proudly sending their sportsmen to take part in different competitions and win in the name of their nations. Tajikistan is one of those countries which is proud to send its sportsmen to Olympic Games. This time we have 14 sportsmen and we hope they will win at least one golden medal. I think that sportsman will be a hero of the country.

Shannon is reporting on the departure of Tajik sportsmen to Beijing.

Judging by the deserted stands at the Tajikistan/Turkmenistan football match in the AFC Challenge Cup opening round, all eyes are already focused on the Beijing Olympics as the ultimate sporting and political event of the year. As with many other delegations, the Tajik Olympic team left for Beijing today.

Neweurasia is doubting that Tajik sportsmen can win any medal.

They are financed on leftovers by Sports Committee of Tajikistan and National Olympic Committee. I saw with my own eyes in what terrible conditions they got trained and prepared for the games. I can say for sure that their results are not on international level. Most probably they will bring no medals with them. But this is not their fault. Both of the committees allocated very little resources. Most of the sportsmen received invitation for participation in the Olympic Games very late and had not time for preparations.

Firuz revises an article in Financial Times and reports in Tajik about the bad ecological situation in Beijing and what the government is doing to manage the situation [tj].

According to Financial Times, despite the allocation of billions of dollars for improvement of ecological situation in Beijing, the results are barely seen. Even after removing almost 50 per cent of cars from the center of the city, the amount of exhaust fumes in the air is not decreasing.

But the Olympics is not only about games and entertainment it is also about the national security of China. Tterrorist attack before the Games was conducted near the border with Tajikistan. And according to some sources, the attackers were Tajik nationals. Certainly this does give a credit to Tajikistan at all.

Shannon reports on that.

News is beginning to spread of an attack in Kashgar, Xinjiang province of China that resulted in the deaths of 16 Chinese Border patrol officers. Some sources are reporting that the two attackers crossed over from Tajikistan, but the NYT and AFP aren’t yet making that assumption. The AP on the other hand identifies the men as Uighurs and ambiguously refers to their origin as “across the border.”

Also posted on neweurasia.net

Tajikistan: The power of gossip

Vadim Sadonshoev — Thu, 22 May 2008 07:03:40 +0000

Recently, the Uzbek website UzMetronom disseminated information about possible murder of Hasan Sadulloev, the bother-in-law of Tajik President Rahmon. Hasan is considered to be one of the wealthiest and powerful persons in today's Tajikistan. According to the website, Hasan was shot by his nephew on May 2 and died in a German hospital on May 8. This information was picked up by many other respected information agencies and subsequently by bloggers. For the last two weeks it was one of the main topics of discussions in the Tajik society. However, it still remains on the level of gossips and no one has credible information to either prove or disapprove this.

Everybody is interested in getting information about this story. Tojvar says that Hasan is the most popular person in Tajiksitan [tj]:

Thousands of people everyday are looking for news about him and discuss his possible murder. Several media outlets are having ready articles with different opinions and various further scenarios, all counting the days when the rumors come true or false.

Ian at Beyond the River links the story of Hasan to his business, with the most lucrative part of it being Talco, the aluminum smelter factory:

RFE/RL quotes some loyal employees who claim that they saw him “just a half-hour ago” and that “thank god, he is in good health.” However, there’s no public sign of him and he didn’t accompany Rahmon to Kazakhstan, nor did Rahmon attend the Victory Day parade this year for the first time ever.

In another post Ian continues watching this story by translating excerpts of a post from from Tajik-language Andesha, and tries to show what kind of conversations might take place around kitchen tables all over Tajikistan:

I don’t believe these stories, but I have a few questions. Why didn’t Rahmon attend the May 9 celebration for the first time in history of our independent country. Why didn’t Hassan Sadullayev travel to Kazakhstan with Rahmon? Why is the state not trying to disprove the rumors by showing the healthy body of Sadullayev to the people?”

Srasov, a journalist from Kazakhstan reports [ru] in his blog that the news about possible murder of Hasan might be “fake” to discredit the visit of Rahmon to Kazakhstan.

As I was assured in the Embassy of Tajikistan [to Kazakhstan] it was a false information, disseminated on the Internet by the “enemies of the president” aiming to undermine his reputation. It has no relation to reality, they said.

neweurasia also says that most probably it was a “fake” aimed to destabilize political situation in the country. The author does not have clear evidences, but relies upon the discussions he had with his friends and colleagues.

I hope that Hasan is alive, because the death of such person does not remain without consequences. I think that this information was disseminated against the information about Talco and the legal fees for the proceedings in order to destabilize the political situation in the country. Since Hasan is one of the main actors in this process, the story about his death would be an excellent accelerator in political destabilization.

If the gossip comes out to be false, it would be the “top lie of the year”, cited by all media outlets in Tajikistan.

Also posted on neweurasia

Tajikistan: Poor country's most expensive trial

Vadim Sadonshoev — Wed, 14 May 2008 12:25:12 +0000

The poorest country in Central Asia, Tajikistan initiated the most expensive trial in the history of British legal proceedings. Tajikistan will pay 120 million USD for the legal fees which represents 5,2 percent of the country’s entire GDP. A bone of contention is the Tajik Aluminum Company (Talco), fully owned by the state. The Tajik side accused its partners of fraud.

Registan earlier linked to the article of John Helmer about this trial.

The High Court in London is considering a trial this year of claims to money, estimated to be as high as US$500 million per year, disappearing from the Tajikistan Aluminium Plant (TadAz, Talco), whose principal trading partner is Hydro Aluminium, the state-controlled Norwegian aluminum producer.

Then Joshua Foust goes on and comments on it.

In essence, several hundred million dollars are missing, possibly moved through Caribbean front companies, and everyone is suing or has sued everyone else to find out what really happened.

Ian at Beyond the River links to an article in Asia Times.

Herbert Smith, one of the largest-billing of British law firms, has been forced to reveal this month in the High Court in London that it is charging the Tajikistan government more than US$100 million for a three-year court claim ordered by Tajik President Imomali Rakhmonov (Rahmon). Rahmon’s targets are a group of aluminum traders and managers, now based in London, who were ousted from the Tajikistan Aluminum Plant (TadAZ, Talco) after getting too close to the president’s interest in Tajikistan’s principal industry.

According to Ian,

This all has a lot to do with a) the best natural resource Tajikistan has, aluminum; and b) the deal between RusAL, the Russian aluminum company, and the Tajik government to build a new aluminum plant as well as to complete the Rogun Hydroelectic Dam. That dam that the Tajik government is now begging for private donations for.

Indeed, this trial astonishes everyone who sees the amount of legal fees and compares them to the GDP of Tajikistan. It exceeds more than ten times the amount that the mayor of Dushanbe wants to raise from the Tajik capital residents for construction of Rogun dam, which may give Tajikistan sufficient electricity supplies.

Tojvar is wondering [tj] where our officials are going to take this money from:

Seems like we need to slaughter all our horses, cows and sheeps to raise money, which will not be enough to cover even half of the fees. Now I’m wondering to what extent these officials are shameless that [they spend so much money for legal fees] and put their arms in pockets of poor people to get money for construction of Rogun. What should the poor people do?

The Tajik aluminum could be a great source of funneling money to the budget and get the country out of the severe economic crisis. Last year Talco reported on its profit, and it is quite huge. However, Central Asia thinks that corruption will minimize the profit, which will make no difference for the country.

It’s great to hear that Tajikistan has a commodity that could fund some serious domestic development, but, unfortunately, corruption and switched contracts are turning this potential cash cow into mincemeat. Talco continues to default on loans and contracts, and Tajikistan has asked the international community to forgive the debts–with a USD 1.2 billion annual income, it’s kind of hard to see why Talco can’t pay.

Tajikistan has enough resources, but endemic corruption makes revenue from these resources fill the pockets of only few people. If we could use our resources rationally, we could have already built both Sangtuda-1, 2, Rogun and many other vitally necessary energy projects, which would help us to have independent electricity and heating supply.

Finally, Ian at Beyond the River makes an excellent roundup about this trial and reports on the murder of one of the major persons involved in it.

Also posted on neweurasia.

Tajikistan: Electricity in Exchange of Salaries

Vadim Sadonshoev — Sat, 03 May 2008 04:51:18 +0000

The mayor of Dushanbe and Chairman of the Tajik Parliament's Upper Chamber Mamadsaid Ubaidulloev proposed a strange way to raise funds for construction of Rogun hydropower station - one of the biggest energy projects in Tajikistan. He calculated all salaries of the Dushanbe residents and drew a conclusion that if all of the working people in the city give up half of their wages in May and June, it will constitute about $10 million. The power plant reportedly requires about $1 billion more, but in fact nobody knows the real amount of money necessary for completion of the construction.

The mayor's appeal was a response to the president Rahmon's recent his annual speech in the parliament. He emphasized the importance of Rogun hydropower station as an asset for energy independence of the state. Khurshed quotes [rus] the president:

“Here I take the opportunity to appeal to each citizen of the country who loves his motherland — and especially to professional constructors and engineers — to take active part in construction and contribute to energy independence of the country”.

People hope that it will not turn into “voluntary-compulsory” campaign. However, not surprisingly, all members of the parliament and those who work in the mayor’s office have already gave up their salaries in a contribution to Rogun.

This raises a fair question: How these people are going to live and feed their families in the next month? Corruption is, probably, the answer. The average monthly salary does not exceed $50 - so it is not a big deal to lose one salary but retain a post, which may bring you several times more money. Perahps, the level of corruption is going to spike in the nearest months.

Khorsheed Bakhshayesh thinks that all other governmental agencies will follow this example:

Observers say that Dushanbe has made such an appeal with a view that the past winter [energy] crisis is still fresh in people's memory and could trigger their active participation. Nevertheless, with 60% of the nation living below the poverty line, the government’s optimism may face lack of enthusiasm among masses.

Khorsheed also gives an interesting fact:

It is not the first government’s appeal to the nation for charity. In 1990s many citizens of Tajikistan contributed to the Sangtuda-1 dam construction, but the concrete figures were never revealed. 75 % of the construction is now funded by the Russian monopoly RAO-UES.

Just to remind — the construction of Sangtuda-1 is still not completed. Only one turbine was launched this winter, as others are expected to be launched by the end of this year.

Darvish is ironic about the mayor's initiative and says that it would be better if the officials sacrifice money from their bank accounts rather than beg for $10 mln from the poor people. However he is afraid that the people will not say “no”:

The people of Tajikistan are friendly; they never say “no” if someone asks them for something. Tajikistan is a heaven for beggars. How can they turn this one out of doors?

Also posted on neweurasia.

Tajikistan: Unjust Distribution of Wealth

Vadim Sadonshoev — Wed, 16 Apr 2008 07:25:48 +0000

It is almost impossible to have a profitable business in Tajikistan if you follow all rules and regulations set by the state. People bitterly joke that the easiest way to become a wealthy man is to become a governmental official or a person close to the government. Perhaps, it is true, as it gives you some kind of “immunity” from the checks, competition and possible prosecution — the higher the post, the more you get. Neweurasia summarizes a survey of Avesta News Agency about the richest people in Tajikistan:

If you are a wealthy person living in Tajikistan, it means that either (1) you’re a governmental official, or (2) you’re a former governmental official, or (3) you’re a businessman who avoids paying taxes, or (4) you’re an entertainment star, or (5) you’re a drug-smuggler. If you’re not a governmental official and you are wealthy, it means you have krisha (”a roof”, or patron from amongst the governmental officials).

The report shows – and it is relatively true - that even to become a popular entertainment star one needs to have unofficial patronage by somebody in the government. In another post neweurasia discusses doing business in Tajikistan:

Your krisha can be a criminal, a high official in the government, especially in a law enforcement agency or a former warlord. It is better to have a krisha from law enforcement agencies or from the government because the criminals and former warlords are not that much influential in Tajikistan [now].

Tojvar opines [taj] on the “weathiest Tajiks list”:

The governmental officials in Tajikistan never disclose their wealth and allege that they make their living only with the official monthly salary — 200 USD — although this is not enough in the capital city. My questions here: Why do they have that much wealth, while I should be a labor migrant in Russia?

To be fair, it is necessary to admit that those who enjoy benefits for the time being, always risk to lose business with every new wake of the property redistribution among the elites; no matter how influential your patron in the governmental structures is, you may lose both your immunity and your property. Last week, one of the most successful Tajik businessmen Maruf Orifov was sentenced by the Supreme Court to 8,5 years of imprisonment with confiscation of property for alleged bribery and tax evasion. He owned the largest retail chain “Orima” in Dushanbe.

John Musarra at Tajiksitan Journal desribes his shopping experience at Orima, while Ravshan thinks [rus] that the Supreme Court’s decision was inadequately harsh and would negatively affect the country’s investment climate. In any case, many in Tajikistan suspect that this trial is nothing else but a raider attack with the purpose to take over some else’s lucrative business. Tajeconomy shares [rus] this opinion and elaborates:

But the main intrigue here is that – who is going to privatize Orima? If the trial was fabricated with a purpose to take over the “Orima” chain, its next owner (or the patron of this person) can be considered as a mastermind of the trial. If the trial is indeed fabricated, who might have such power and resources to manipulate the law enforcement bodies?

Tajikistan: Politicized Navruz

Vadim Sadonshoev — Thu, 27 Mar 2008 10:19:20 +0000

Navruz is one of the main celebrations for Tajiks. This time — more than ever — it means end of one of the harshest winter in several decades. People could hardly wait for these warm days that have come with the beginning of spring. Navruz has been celebrated throughout the country during the last six days.

Aisha saysthat it's a nice time because “Tajik people seem to gain energy after the hardships of winter”:

In Tajik language Navruz means “New Day” and the 21st of March is also a kind of New Year eve. This year, the president came to Khujand and all people were walking in the streets and parks, taking boats on the river, eating ice-cream and watching street performers. Women wore national satin spring-colored dresses and friends and families got together to make sumanak — a sweet paste made from wheat.

During the last six days Tajik broadcast media were covering only Navruz celebrations attended by higher officials in different parts of the country. Tojvar comments that it is too hard to see one and the same face on TV all the time [tj]:

If a foreigner watches Navruz on Tajik television, he would think that it is either a president's birthday or his pre-election campaign.

This year all main festivities were held in Khujand on the main square near the building of the local government, where a a theatrical performance of more than thousand people — including children — was held and attended by the president. Ravshan at neweurasia is wondering why we have such big celebrations, if they are restricted by the law, which was introduced by the incumbent president [ru]:

Last year, new regulations restricting lavish festivities were introduced in Tajikistan. Now, one year after that, a lot of money is spent for one celebration of Navruz. What is the cost of all those costumes and decorations? How much money was spent to take governmental officials from Dushanbe to Khujand? Why do we have enough money to organize this kind of dubious events and don’t have money to buy give food to the starving people?

Tajikistanweb points to the contradictory statement made by president Rahmon. In his speech to the Tajik intelligentsia on the occasion of Navruz, Rahmon criticized the Tajik mass media for late response to the events that are happening in the country:

Whenever something happens in our country, people are informed about it by the Russian agencies and only then our media air the news,” said the president. “As a result, the situation is often misunderstood, and thus - false, defamatory or exaggerated news reports emerge.

To solve this problem, he ordered to establish a news channel that would operatively inform people about happenings within the country and abroad.

At the same time, Rahmon expressed his implicit support for the state censorship, underlining the need to hinder publication of any material that offends dignity, in particular, of the officials, or incites conflicts, regionalism and extremism. He also asked journalists to refrain from spreading “mistrust and pessimism”. The presidential wish can be interpreted into stricter censorship and further media repression by the authorities. Any effort to contradict the official point of view can be labeled “destabilizing” by the Rahmon’s subordinates.

It's a pity that even such bright holiday as Navruz has been used by the government to brainwash the population and further restrict the media freedom.

Tajikistan: Hunger to Replace Cold and Darkness

Vadim Sadonshoev — Thu, 13 Mar 2008 17:26:01 +0000

Tajikistan is a small country with big problems. The nation, particularly the rural population, is still suffering from energy crisis, but yet another crisis is going to embrace it very soon. This time it's about food.

Neweurasia reports that Barki Tojik – the country's electricity monopolist – promises to solve the problem with energy by the end of this month. However, the problem with electricity is being solved naturally - a warmer season has come and now there is enough water to move the turbines and generate electricity on hydropower stations.

However, this does not ease the social stress, because the food crisis seems to be harder to overcome. Neweurasia links to a report by The Christian Science Monitor, saying that this spring's expected humanitarian crisis may spark unrest in this volatile region:

About 260,000 Tajiks are in need of immediate food assistance, and up to 2 million face starvation by winter’s end if they don’t receive swift help, according to the UN. The country urgently needs supplies of portable generators, kerosene stoves, food, blankets and warm clothes.

Obviously this crisis has not come out all of a sudden. According to UN figures, about two-thirds of Tajikistan’s people have to subsist on less than $2 per day, while 41 per cent lack regular access to clean drinking water.

At the same time, Tajikistan is not the only one to have shortage of food products, reports GreenIcebergs. It is one of many to feel the impact of food and fuel crisis through the globe. Recently the United Nations World Food Program reported that it would need half a billion dollars more this year to fulfill its projects i 2008:

The countries it identified as being directly impacted were Zimbabwe, Eritrea, Haiti, Djibouti and Gambia, Tajikistan, Togo, Chad, Benin, Myanmar, Cameroon, Niger, Senegal, Yemen and Cuba.

This year's severe winter is one of the main causes of the upcoming food crisis, as extreme weather has affected spring crops and losses are expected to affect important export crops making the situation even more devastating for Tajikistan.

Neweurasia also reports that this time the winter was so unexpectedly cold that the farmers could barely save their harvest:

Farmers cannot save what they reaped last year, so they try to sell it for giveaway prices as quickly as possible. These products – mostly fruits and vegetables - were supposed to be sold in spring. Cold winter killed most of the crops planted last fall, including grape and other fruit gardens that could not survive in this abnormal cold. Also, according to the official statistics, Tajikistan lost more than 700 hectares of potato fields. Beating in mind that more than 93 percent of the territory of Tajikistan is covered by mountains, this is a really substantial area.

Intellibrifs reviews an IWPR article, also raising the issue of food deficit in the country:

Representatives of the World Food Program and the World Health Organization have cautioned that livestock and poultry have suffered severely during the winter, estimating that production of milk and eggs could experience a 50 percent drop-off. In addition, many Tajiks are grappling with the initial stage of hunger, in which they are spending more than ever on food, but eating less, with many eating only once a day.

Feoline opines on the BBC report saying that Tajikistan is already facing the catastrophe:

It's not just the rural population that's being affected, but people in the cities too … and we only expect the food situation to deteriorate. This is already a real emergency.

The Tajik government has always something or someone to blame for its failure to act adequately and avoid crises. We all can blame the cold winter, the governments of the neighboring countries or the opposition, but things do not get better if we do so…

Tajikistan: Energy Crisis Is Not Enough to Lose Patience

Vadim Sadonshoev — Mon, 25 Feb 2008 06:08:00 +0000

The continuing energy crisis is, probably, the worst problem that Tajikistan ever faced since the end of civil war. Neweurasia reports that most of the population is barely surviving this winter - the harshest in several decades - against the background of constant blackouts. The situation is even more desperate as electricity is the only source of heating throughout the whole country.

“Currently, most of the population in rural areas is supplied with electricity only 1,5 hour a day. In Dushanbe, the population is having electricity from 5 to 10 o'clock in the morning and then from 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. Beyond these time limits, people have no electricity and, therefore, no heating, no chance to cook etc. Most of the enterprises have been closed down and employees were forced to go on unscheduled and unpaid leave”, neweurasia reports..

Ravshan blames the government for poor management in the energy sector and absurd human resource management [ru]. Meanwhile, the introduced schedule of harsh electricity cut-offs is not fairly observed even in Dushanbe:

According to the schedule, the population should have electricity ten hours a day, but very they often turn on the electricity one hour later and cut it off one hour earlier. Basically, people have only 8 hours of access to electricity a day… They say nothing about the fact that the Minister of Energy and Industry graduated from the agricultural university and has no idea on how to manage the energy sector. Moreover, he never worked in this sphere. They also don't tell us that in emergency situation the electricity is being sold out to other countries. They simply say nothing about the most important things…

Ian at Beyond the river links wonders whether or not the general population should lose its patience with the leadership, like this anonymous lawyer from the Eurasianet's report has:

“We have double standards in our society. We see a number of new construction sites in Dushanbe, five-star hotels … And we see fancy cars and homes in the city. Everybody knows who these things belong to. These ‘masters of life’ control the economy, but they are deaf to the people’s cries. In the spring we will be facing another serious threat – dirty water from taps. And somebody will be appealing again for international assistance. It happens time and again.”

Indeed, the Tajikistan's authorities officially admitted their inability to cope with the energy crisis by appealing to international community for aid. Our leadership is certainly not the best one but - ironically - we'll always be looking back at our southern neighbor, Afghanistan, not wanting to repeat its fate. This is the behavioral model of many post-Soviet nations - “the fear of the worse” blocks protest potential and the notion of stability is being used to cover stagnation. Apparently, the population will not lose its patience for a long time, as it still remembers the war very well. But once it loses patience, there is a high possibility that Tajikistan can repeat the fate of Afghanistan, which is the least desired for everybody.

Tajikistan: The ice age. Now

Vadim Sadonshoev — Wed, 23 Jan 2008 14:04:28 +0000

Despite the fact that the long-awaited hydropower station Sangtuda-1 in Tajikistan has been launched, the population still does not feel the changes. It is worth of mentioning that only the first (out of four) turbines was launched and the other three will be on till the end of this year. Despite the promises of local meteorologist, who forecasted that the cold weather will leave Tajikistan in several days, the temperature is still 16-20 degrees below the zero (Celsius).

More than that, the energy crisis is still here and gets even worse day after day, says kellyinthemountains. Apartments, schools, offices are still cold and dark. Low temperatures have forced people to wear outer clothing inside their offices and homes:

Temperatures in Tajikistan and elsewhere in Central Asia have dropped below -20 Celsius in some areas. Heavy snowfalls and avalanches have disrupted public transport in many cities and villages. Some bus drivers who are brave enough to go on the icy roads have been charging passengers twice the price for tickets.

Additionally, absence of central heating the cities and poor supply of electricity makes almost impossible to have classes in secondary schools — they were cut down from 45 to 30 minutes. Teachers and students are sitting in the classrooms in coats and scarves.

As winter does not seem to get milder, the situation does not get better, neweurasia reports:

In addition to current energy crisis, prices for the scarce electricity was increased by 20 percent and for the gas almost by 50 percent. It is happening during the winter time when the population is experiencing a great shortage of energy to heat houses and cook food. The announcement about the sharp rise in prices of electricity and gas was recently made by the local monopolist energy companies TojikGaz (natural gas) and Barqi Tojik (electricity).

Although it is legislatively prohibited to cut-off electricity at such places as hospitals, this law is violated everyday and has tragic consequences. Recently, six newly-born children died in the hospitals of Dushanbe. Local media outlets report that the main reason of these deaths were electricity cut-offs in maternity hospitals.

The electricity generated in the country is not enough even for street lights. Khurshed says that dark streets make drivers get into car accidents more often [ru].

Street lights in Dushanbe are off almost for almost a week and the number of traffic accidents has noticeably increased.

Today, Tajik news agencies reported that the government ordered to close down all plants, factories and other enterprises till the end of January in order to save energy. Yesterday, the head of major energy company “Barki Tojik” (electricity) reported that the level of water in Nurek reservoir is rapidly becoming less. This reservoir provides water for the major hydropower station Nurek, which generates more than 80 per cent of electricity in the country. “Barki Tojik” says that if the use of electricity is not going to decrease, the water in the reservoir will be not enough till mid-February to generate electricity.

Tajiksitan: Parliament against witches

Vadim Sadonshoev — Fri, 21 Dec 2007 10:20:50 +0000

Tajikistan is trying to put a spell on witchcraft and fortune-telling. Actually, this comes as a no-surprise to many Tajiks after all those strange laws that have been passed one after another by our parliament. The bill on witchery is also part of the “Cultural Revolution” in Tajikistan, started earlier this year by President Rahmon.

As distinct from the foreigners' indignation, it does not seem strange to most Tajiks, who think that it is good to have charlatans punished. There are about 5,000 people in Tajikistan (one against nearly 150 citizens) registered at the Center of folk medicine as “healers” — most of them are involved in sorcery and fortune-telling and make lots of money.

There are a lot of links in the blogosphere to the news articles about crackdown on witchcraft, but few of them commented on that. Here are some of them:

Ian at Beyond the River ironically says:

“This much-needed crackdown comes at a time when they’re having a hard time getting electricity in the capital city of the country. Harry Potter issued a statement through his spokesperson condemning this latest infringement of the Tajik government against the human rights of sorcerers and other religious group.

Jan at Chess, Goddess and Everything thinks that it will be impossible to stop people from doing something they’ve been doing for thousands of years, long before Islam:

This reminds me of the communists' attempts in Russia and China to stamp out organized religion. All it did was go underground. Supression never works in the long run.

David from Hoolavoo.com is wondering whether living in Tajikistan is that bad as it is reported in the news:

Thank God, somebody is finally taking a stand against sorcery in our modern times. Now, it’s not all bad, because they’ve also taken away lavish weddings and the government takes an interest in the cars and cellphones of the young and spoiled.

Ashr501 is extremely surprised to learn about crackdown on sorcery in Tajikistan:

It really scares me that - whenever I finish writing a story that has grown in my head - this sort of thing always seems to happen.

Matt Philip categorizes the story about the bill against witchcraft as “Extraordinarily Odd”:

So far it seems they’re right on track to a brilliant, bright future with all the main social problems any society experiences having been safely and efficiently identified and quarantined. How excellent.

Tom Gross is wondering whether Tajikistan remains to be “the last bastion of witchery”. The amateur scientist is probably the only person in the blogosphere who sees a good reason behind the decision of the parliament:

…this legislation, while it may seem like an oppressive anti-free speech measure, is really just a case of the government cracking down on what is essentially a spiritual robbery.

Cross-posted from neweurasia.

Tajikistan: Blast in the Dushanbe - Plot or Not?

Vadim Sadonshoev — Wed, 21 Nov 2007 07:15:36 +0000

Last week the bomb explosion frightened the whole population of Tajikistan, killing one person. As Josh Foust of Registan reports, early in the morning - at around 8 a.m., Dushanbe time, a poor street cleaner picked up a plastic bag, which exploded in his hands. It happened near the administrative venue “Kohi Vahdat”, not far from the Presidential Palace. “Kohi Vahdat” is a popular place for holding big conferences, including international ones. It is also close to the Uzbek embassy, commercial First MicroFinance Bank, prestigious Hotel Avesto and some other important buildings, but the people's attention was focused solely on the President's Palace.

As usually, the person killed by the blast supposed to have no links to the bomb itself. If it happened one hour later, the number of victims would have been higher, mostly comprised by the participants of the Regional Meeting for Environmental Risk Reduction in Central Asia, organized by the European Commission. The event was moved to another venue, but already in the afternoon the participants - representatives of international organizations and higher state officials - got back to “Kohi Vahdat” after the police finished the on-site investigation. Some experts assume that the bomb could have been addressed to the governmental officials and, more likely, to Prime Minister Okil Okilov.

Most of the news agencies reported that this explosion happened “somewhere close to Presidential Palace” without mentioning the exact place, somehow implying that the bomb was prepared for a particular person. Ian from Beyond the River made a translation of Rama’s post from neweurasia:

Dushanbe is a relatively peaceful city… Who would need to destabilize the situation in the country? Islamists, who are being kept down? Opposition, which doesn’t really even exist? I don’t think so. None of them would have taken such a stupid step. Maybe it’s a political game – a technique to restrain dissatisfaction of the popuilation? It’s highly possible. Tajikistan today is experiencing an unstoppable rise in prices for food products and an unprecedented bounce of inflation (12.4 per cent). That’s why it could be necessary to distract the people and the press from real problems by organizing a so-called “terror attack”.

Later on Ian updated his post by adding a link to Eurasianet article and taking a quote.

“Any authoritarian ruler needs an external threat. It’s always nice when there is an insidious enemy.”

–Alexei Malashenko, Carnegie Center Moscow

On the next day after the explosion I wrote another post about another blast threat, which later appeared to be a training. The police wanted to test the security awareness of the population. In this regard, Ataman Rakin comments that the bomb explosion in Dushnbe was just a…

…‘let’s-scare-the-stupid-foreigners-so-that-we-can-sell-our-terrorism-problem’ performance.
Same with those who tried to put Saipov’s murder on the Hizb-ut-Tahrir recently. An EU conference is a soft target, contrary to U.S. facilities who are more heavily guarded. A friend who was on the site just after the supposed ‘terakt’ [terror attack] saw neither a corpse nor blood of the floor.

Nikita Smekaev from the Moskovskiy Komsomolets Blog links to one of the Russian websites, where Alexei Vlasov, Deputy Head of the History Department at the Moscow State University, said:

“The explosion in Dushanbe shows a bundle of contradictions. A week ago it was reported that Tajik president Emomali Rahmon is ill, as if for several weeks he was on treatment in a hospital in some Western country. This explosion can be put in one line with the recent assassination attempt against the Minister of Defense. The blast, defined as a terror attack, can be a consequence of internal discord in the Rahmon’s team concerning the issue of his successor”.

An author from Coffee with Mark Towhey thinks that this kind of explosions happen more often in London than in Dushanbe:

“The fact is that this type of explosion is extremely unusual for Dushanbe. Frankly, it happens more often in London than here. What’s very interesting about this bomb, and the few others that have happened over the years (from what my colleagues have told me) is that, although the government is very quick to pin them on “Islamist terrorists”, no group ever claims credit. Although it would be hard for such a group to claim credit in a Tajik newspaper — they are not exactly icons to journalistic freedom — it would be dead easy to drop an email to BBC or Reuters.

Tajikistan: Travelogue Impressions

Vadim Sadonshoev — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 06:31:28 +0000

There is interesting story of an American woman who travels around Tajikistan and writes a travelogue. It seems like she is not really happy with the service in this country but she loves to talk to people and know about their life and traditions. In two days she had so much to say…

Another tourist, drysdales visited Hissar. He went to a museum and looked at old costumes, footwear, earthen wear and even the chain mail and sword of a warrior. There was a paved courtyard with many small, off shoot rooms. Some of the embroidery work was in interesting and colourful designs. The doors leading into the museum were wooden and carved with detail.

Dan and Audrey visited Khorog and they are telling us about their flight from Khorog to Dushanbe. In they post they have some good photos and a video with the first 30 seconds from the taxi and takeoff of the previous day’s flight and next 90 seconds are mid-air.

Also the past two weeks there were made some good shots by people who visited the country: TrekEarth (Saghirdasht pass) and babasteve who never gets tired of photographing.

Tajikistan: Arts and Culture

Vadim Sadonshoev — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 06:13:14 +0000

This week Firuz at Tajik-Tajik blog neweurasia shared the story of a handicraftsman from Istravshan (northern Tajikistan) who was involved in leather working since childhood and for almost 60 years. He inherited this skill from his father and his father from his father. This tradition is inherited from father to son for many centuries.

The handicraftsmen say that the leather working is a very difficult and painstaking work. Process of a fell of one cow requires the effort of three men in ten days.

Meanwhile, the cultural life in tajik cities seems to be far less creative than the traditional arts legacy. A new author on Tajik-English blog neweurasia C offers some thoughts on the Tajik music scene. He thinks that people in Tajikistan are so isolated from big music events happening in the world that they are ready to go to local concerts even if they are fed up with them.

Whatever place you go you see the same faces on the stage as well in the auditorium. And it seems that faces that I see in the auditorium come not because they are extremely interested in the concert or in the group, they come because they are starving for cultural events.

Tajikistan: Corruption and Energy

Vadim Sadonshoev — Sat, 03 Nov 2007 06:08:46 +0000

Perhaps the main discussion on the Tajik blogosphere this week was caused by the reports that the head of the new State Financial and Corruption Control Agency, Sherhon Salimov, only earns $300 USD a month, and that the salaries of others who work in this agency are even lower. This sounds so absurd, because low salaries for state officials are one of the main reasons for the Tajikistan's high level of corruption, which often leads to non-transparency of the state-level decisions.

In this sense, lack of public expertise may sometimes result in serious consequences in various areas, including environmental one. Economy of Tajikistan reports on the visit of the head of RAO Unified Energy System of Russia Anatoly Jubais who proposed to built a hydroelectric power station on the natural dam in Sarez lake. The author of the post is concerned that this initiative may lead to catastrophe in the whole region.

I heard about the ideas of building a hydroelectric power station in Sarez lake, but none of them were reasonable. This time the same thing happened. The Tajik Academy of Sciences represented by its head Ilolov said the proposal will be taken for consideration but no more than that.