Members of a Yahoo! forum [1] are wondering how the situation in Madagascar degenerated into looting, general anarchy and the current power vacuum; how the crisis and general mayhem could have been avoided; and how the situation is different or similar to 2002, when eight months of political turmoil and violence shook Madagascar. Then, ironically, it was the currently embattled President, Marc Ravalomanana, who was demanding democracy and was heralded as the people's choice.
“Ny fanontaniana mipetraka sy tonga ho azy dia ny hoe inona moa no mahasamihafa ny zavatra potika amin'izao taona 2008 izao amin'izay zavatra potika tamin'ny taona 2002? … Ka inona ary no vaha-olana tsy hiverenan'ny fanapotehana
intsony?”
Rajiosy [2] titles in one of his posts that
“L'histoire se repete… en farce”
Rajiosy then retraces the history of Madagascar's political instability
- fikomian’ny mponina tany Atsimo – 1971.
- fitokonan’ny mpianatra oniversite – Mai 1972.
- fanenjehana merina tany Toamasina – 1972 na 1973 tsy tsaroako tsara intsony.
- fanonganam-panjakana tsy nahomby – Desambra 1974
- fikomian’ny GMP, fametraham-pialana, fandraisam-pahefana sy famonoana filoham-panjakana – Janvier/Février 1975.
- fanenjehana sy famonoana kômoriana tany Mahajanga – 1975.
- fitokonan’ny mpianatra indray notarihin’ny Pr Andriamampandry sy ny MAFM KTMA – 1977 izy izay.
- raharahan’ny kung fu sy ny TTS – 1979 (?)
- fifanenjehan’ny mafana sy ny miaramila tany avaratry ny nosy – 1979/80 tany ho any (?)
fitokonam-be – 1991.- fanalana ny filoha Zafy – 1994.
- fifidianana ady sahala tamin’i Zafy sy Ratsiraka. Itsy farany no “notendrena” ho filoha – 1996.
- fifidianana sy fitokonam-be ary gidragidra – 2002.
- rotadrotaka tetsy sy teroa Mahajanga / Toamasina / Fianarantsoa / Toliara – 2003 ka hatramin’ny 2006.
- fitakiana demôkrasia ho an’ny Viva – 2009
.
- insurrection in Southern Madagascar – 1971
- students strike – may 1972
- pogroms against Merina (Author's note: the most numerous ethnic group of Madagascar) in Toamasina – 1972 or 1973
- failed putsch – december 1974
- insurrection of the army, resignation, change of power and assassination of the country's leader – January/February 1975
- pogroms against Comorians in Mahajanga – 1975
- students strike lead by Pr Andriamampandry and MAFM KTMA – around 1977
- violent fights between Kung Fu adepts and TTS (Group of Disenfranchised Youth) – around 1979 (?)
- violence between rebels and army in northern Madagascar – 1979/80(?)
- general strikes – 1991
- impeachment of President Zafy – 1994
- controversial presidential elections. Ratsiraka was “designed” as president – 1996
- elections, general strikes and violence – 2002
- scattered riots Mahajanga / Toamasina / Fianarantsoa / Toliara – 2003 to 2006.
- Viva's demand for democracy – 2009
Burzano 2000 [3] thinks we need to educate the masses in order to avoid the repetition of violence:
“Mila tadiavina (ianarana) ny lalana sy rafitra ahazoan'ny vahoaka maneho hevitra amim-pahatoniana sy tsy arahin-kerisetra. Mila tadiavina koa ny lalana ahazoan'ny eo amin'ny familiana amin'ny ambaratongam-pahefana rehetra mihaino ny feon'ny vahoaka sy manova famindra tsy arahin-kerisetra rehefa misy ilana izany. Mazava be ilay zava-nisy sy toa mbola misy iny hoe “Émeutes de la faim”. Aza adino fa be dia be ny olona efa tsy nihinana sakafo afa-tsy indray mandeha sy tapany isan'andro na latsak'izay aza raha tsy hiresaka afa-tsy ny ao Tana sy ny manodidina fotsiny aza.”
This opinion is seconded by Nasolo Valiavo Andriamihaja [4], a well known columnist at the daily Express de Madagascar [5], who thinks the chaos was predictable based on Malagasy history. He makes a strong case for teaching people to think independently and resist being used for political purposes :
“Inona no nitondra amin’izao tampin-dalana izao ka tsy efa nosoratana teto hatramin’ny 2002 ? Inona no mbola hitranga manaraka ka tsy efa hita soritra hatramin’ny 2002 ? Kitaontaona azo nihodivirana tsara mihitsy ny hitsin-dalana noraisin’ny fitondran-dRavalomanana. “
…
Tsy tojo izao fidinana an-dalambe izao sahady indray ny firenena raha nanana fanetren-tena ny fitondrana. Teny natao tamin-dRatsiraka izany tamin’ny 2001, teny naverina tamin-dRavalomanana hatramin’ izay fito taona izay. Ny anay, izay tsy hikatsoan’ny fiainam-pirenena fotsiny ihany. Ny orinasa mamokatra soa aman-tsara, ny fivarotana mitady fivelomana, ny aina sy ny fananan’ny tsirairay tsy misy ahiana, ny mpiasa tsy lany andro mitokona, ny mpianatra tsy very taona, ny raharaha politika mizotra milamina amin’ny fifidianana voafetra mialoha. Fiainana tsy mila voatsiary fa moramora toa ny any Amerika : ny 4 novambra, isaky ny efa-taona ihany, no misy fifidianana Filoha.
Ny ahiahinay dia ny hiverenan’izao isan-taona, isam-bolana, raha isaky ny mahatsiaro dia hiantso korontana, hamory vahoaka. …
Raha mbola tsangan’olona hatrany no harahin’ny Malagasy dia tsy hisy fandrosoana eto na hanova Filoha isam-bolana aza isika. Tsy misy izany Mesia izany, tsy misy izany fahagagana izany, ary adala izay mino fotsiny ihany. Fitaizana voalohany tsy tanteraky ny antoko politika sy ny mpitaiza isan-tsokajiny (média, société civile, fiangonana, sekoly, raiamandreny) tao anatin’izay dimampolo taona naha Repoblika ny tany izay. Tsy ny fitaomana azy hidina an-dalambe, izay miafara amin’ny faty olona na fandravana fananana, no fitaizana tsara indrindra omena ny vahoaka. Hita izao fa izay mitaona azy hitokona androany, hifoterany hikomy rahampitso.
Ilay hoe demokrasia, tsy kabary fotsiny. Vahoaka ampy fahalalana no fototry ny demokrasia. Tsy mihinana amam-bolony, tsy mankatoa fahatany, tsy manaran-drian-drano. Vahoaka mifidy manavaka fa tsy mandatsa-bato fotsiny. Vahoaka mandinika fa tsy manao rebik’ondry (2). Tsy vita izany tamin’ny 1972, tsy vita tamin’ny 1991, tsy vita tamin’ny 2002, mbola tsy tanteraka ihany indray 2009. Tsy azo ataon’ny mpahalala ny milavo lefona fa fanabeazana tsy maintsy hirosoana io, satria tsy hisy fahagagana rahateo koa. Sanatria mantsy izany hoe ozona ho an’i Madagasikara ny toy izao.”
…
If the government had had some humility, there would not be mass demonstrations so soon again in the country. These words cautioned Ratsiraka, (note of the author :the former president that fled the country in 2001, when mass demonstrations helped give the power to Ravalomanana), they have been repeated to Ravalomanana for the last seven years. We only want a smooth life with our factories producing, our commerce thriving, our lives and belongings safe, workers not wasting their time on strikes, students not wasting school years, political affairs peacefully going on based on scheduled election timetables. A simple and easy life like in America : on the fourth of november, every four years only, one goes to the polls to elect the President.
We fear the repetition of these unrests every year, every month, each time one feels like it, one will be calling for mayhem, calling for mass demonstrations.
…
If Malagasies keep on following personalities like this, there will never be progress even if we switch presidents on a monthly basis. There is no Messiah, no miracles, only fools just believe (note of the author : this verse taken from the bible, was Ravalomanana's political slogan in 2002). Political parties, mass media, civil society, the church, schools, parents, all have failed to educate during the last fifty republican years of our country. The best education you give your people is not by urging them to descend in the streets, resulting in deaths and looting. We now see that whoever leads the strike today, will be the butt of insurrection tomorrow.
Democracy is not just talk. Educated people are the basis of democracy. Educated people do not just blindly follow, obey and go with the flow. Educated people have a discerning mind, they do not just cast their ballots. We did not achieve this in 1972, 1991, 2002, and we will not achieve this either in 2009. Those in the know should not surrender, education is the only way, there will not be miracles. Because Madagascar has not been cursed to these [repeating turmoils].”
Meanwhile, others [6] passionately regret that the Malagasy politicians, those in power and those in the opposition, will not be the ones suffering most from the crisis:
“Ny politika Malagasy moa izany dia efa mahazatra fa miala an`Ankatso dia Ambohidepona, ny mampalahelo dia na ny mpitondra amin`izao na ny mpanotra dia olona tsy tena mijaly na koa tsy tena nijaly tamin`ny 2002 na 1991. Mba tsinjonareo ireo ve ireny mpivarotra anana eny antsena sy mpianatra nandeha tongotra 30 km nandroso sy niverina nandeha nakao antananarivo, mba tsinjonareo ve ilay mpampianatra amin`ny EPP, mpampianatra iray mampianatra kilasy 5 no sady tale, mba tsijonareo ve ny olona voan`ny rivodoza mila fanampiana nefa tsy misy manampy, mba tsijonareo ve ny olona mitady ny hoaniny isanandrosanandro, mba tsinjonareo ve ny mpibata entana na reraka aza dia miasa hatrany….indrisy ny an`ny mpanao politika malagasy rehetra dia haka fitondrana mba hampiadanany ny tenany…
Izaho manokana dia “halako” izay olona mampijaly ny Malagasy na mpitondra io na mpanohitra, ireo mamitaka ny tsy mahalala sy manao tohatra iakarana ireo sahirana; na tsy afa miteny aza ireo dia ny tody tsy misy fa ny atao no miverina. Dia tena firenena voahozona ve i Madagasika, tsy misy afatsin`ny mifampidera hery ve ny ain`ny mpanao politika Malagasy.
TOkony mandeha mitazona angadin`omby kely aloha ireo mpitondra fanjakana sy mpanohitra ireo mba ahatsapana hoe mafy ny miasa mamelotena sy mitady ny ho anina isan`andro, ario ny akanjo mianjaika be ireny dia mba miloloava vary amin`ny gony hatero ho an`ny traboina.”
I “hate” people who make Malagasies suffer, the current president and opposition leaders included, those who cheat the uneducated and use the poor as a means to an end, they only know to show off their strengths. They should go try working with a spade so they will know how hard it is to sustain oneself and find one's sustenance every day, trash your fancy clothes and carry rice bags on your heads to give to the disaster stricken!”
And Tomavana [7]laments that in all this chaos, the victims of cyclones which have last week devastated entire cities [8]have all but been forgotten.
“Inona moa izany fa andro iray fanampiny tsy ahafahan’ireo traboina miantehitra afatsy amin’ny tenany ihany indray iny andro iray iny. Inona intsony koa moa no ambarako eo afatsy ny hoe raha mbola zo atao … dia aza mba mipetraka any amin’ny faritany ihany zalahy e !”