1 comment

• Dariush

  I am a coffee producer from C.A. Guatemala and i really think that the coffee producing countries are having problems with the weather, and costs of coffee has raised but prices on the coffee market are not the reflex of the world production because by these time the july contract should be $160 at least, coffee production is lower and these 2009-2010 crop its coming short and not just in Brazil and Colombia but in all the coffee producing countries so the world consumption its growing and most important in the producing countries, like Brazil or Colombia and in Central America too and what about Vietnam well the last crop was lower than estimated 16 million versus 20.5 its 4.5miliion bags less and Colombia with 2.5million bags less so prices should be up and yes that is why the market its responding to that deficit but prices were lo because the industry were pushing the market down and why, well because they need to buy cheaper but i think its getting auth off hands because there is no coffee so we are going to see good prices in the next days and the $160 its coming faster everybody its saying that there is no money but the real thing its that they need to buy cheaper well everybody wants that but the investors had realized that there is not enough coffee so its good to put money in the coffee they no that and they know that coffee its shot so its good to invest on it and that is why the market its responding well it has support and the investors are confident. And what about some roasters that are saying that the world consumption its going to droop 1 or 2% in the coming year, well I say they are protecting there interests and what about the producing countries that are drinking more coffee its more than 1 or 2% so coffee its short coming from 128 million crop 2008-2009 and the 2009-2010 crop its going to be 115 to 118 million so what about that 10 million less coffee, there is not such amount in stocks so there is going to be 10 million less bags of coffee and lets say the consumption stay the same , well there is still going to be 10 million bags shot to cover the world demand for the period 2009-2010 and the effect of non fertilization of last year and these year coffee producers are not going to invest because they had bad crop in 2008-2009, so they do not have money to invest and for 2010-2011 crop it still going to be short because the 10 million are going to stay short, so coffee its going up like it or not so be very conservative to sell long because prices are getting higher and another thing very careful because the weather conditions are changing. I do not think that Brazil its coming with more than 36 million bags and what about the weather they say the lad in which is coffee planted its getting warmer every year so conditions are changing and the stress of the plants can get worse be very positive producers because good times are coming no matter where you are be positive.

  19 May 2009, 22:54 pm

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