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See Global Voices special coverage page on the South Ossetia crisis.
With local and international media outlets reporting that fighting is spilling over into Georgia proper, the latest military confrontation with Russia over the breakaway region of South Ossetia looks increasingly like war. Wu Wei reports from Tbilisi that the Vaziani military base just outside the Georgian capital has been bombed. The signs look very ominous indeed.
Reports say Russians have damaged the runway at the Marneuli airport near Tbilisi.
We are wondering what the Georgian airforce is doing.
Nobody has declared war yet, and the Russians are hedging, but when you put it all together, it looks pretty much like it.
It seems some dignitaries are on their way, like President Adamkas from Lithuania. They better land quick.
The same blog says that Embassies are now preparing for the possibility that their citizens will have to be evacuated. However, it is not yet certain whether such a move will be necessary.
It seems in case of an evacuation it will be through Armenia. Our Greek has been told the same. This seems to be a plan agreed at a meeting of all the embassies earlier in the week.
But nobody is expecting this to be necessary. I'm leaving for Lithuania next Thursday anyway, for a long weekend.
A new meeting of diplomats has been called this afternoon which everybody but the Russians have gone to.
A Fistful of Euros examines the situation from Georgia, but also questions whether Russia will risk war over South Ossetia. It also wonders whether Tbilisi received tacit approval for military operations from the U.S. and Europe.
First, what will Russia’s leadership do? It was willing to have Russian planes violate Georgian airspace last week during the escalation, and reports have it that one bomb each fell near the Georgian cities of Gori and Kartveli. On the other hand, this looks like a gesture — if the Russians wanted to have bombs fall on Gori and Kartveli, they jolly well would have. Escalation by the Russian side is of course possible, but Saakashvili’s government has bet that Russia won’t be all that put out about 70,000 South Ossetians. The ruble and the Russian stock market, however, both had big drops today, apparently on the theory that you never know about escalation.
Second, what will the Americans and EU do? A senior State Department figure was here in Tbilisi last week, and I would expect that the Georgian side at least hinted very broadly about what was up. He would have to deny that, of course, in the way of these things. We can assume that the Americans did not warn them off. The German foreign minister was also here, with a plan for Abkhazia. It’s slightly less likely that he was clued in, but the topic of his visit points to the next item on the reintegration agenda.
The same blog also reports that while Russian jets have bombed targets close to the Georgian capital, there has only been sporadic outages in terms of electricity, Internet access and cell phone communication. Meanwhile, other blogs, such as one from Reuters, examine the possibility that Georgian military action is directly related to Kosovo.
Is Kosovo to blame for the fighting in South Ossetia?
When the Serbian province seceded from Belgrade in February, South Ossetia was quick to reassert its own claim to international recognition.
As a spokeswoman for separatist leader Eduard Kokoity told Reuters at the time: “The Kosovo precedent has driven us to more actively seek our rights.”
Those remarks will not have gone unheard in Tblisi and could well have added some urgency to Georgia’s desire to impose its rule over breakaway South Ossetia.
the will to exist also comes to the same conclusion, but says the situation is not the same.
South Ossetia is another Kosovo in the works. 98-99% of Ossetians want independence if you believe the results of their referendum. Unfortunately, that’s not the reality of the world. Independence for South Ossetia is no more likely than say, Vermont seceding from the United States. Either Georgia or Russia will dominate the territory for the foreseeable future.
Writing on Outside the Beltway, James Joyner again draws parallels with Kosovo and is concerned about the situation, wondering if NATO will have no choice but to intervene.
This is still a holdover from the breakup of the Soviet Union. South Ossetia declared its independence from Georgia in the early 1990s and has de facto sovereignty over large parts of its territory. While neither Georgia nor the international community recognizes the secession as legitimate, Russia has been sympathetic.
Tensions came to a head with Kosovo’s declaration of independence and the push to offer Georgia a membership action plan and eventual inclusion into NATO. Russia immediately began throwing its weight around in both South Ossetia and another breakaway province, Abkhazia. It appears that Russia is now making its play.
Given that NATO all but promised Georgia eventual membership at its Bucharest summit mere months ago, ignoring Russia’s move here is unthinkable.
[…]
This is getting ugly, fast.
to Leopolis’ “isn’t it convenient that Russia has given South Ossetians passports, and then claim that they are protecting “their” citizens?”
Dear Leopolis, the truth is that Georgia had nothing to do with Southern Ossetia for the last 15 years. They did’n even pay pensions to ossetian pensioners. There were no jobs, no social help, there was just nothing to provide normal life in this “georgian province”. So, people had to find their own ways to earn their living. That’s the moment when ossetians started getting Russian passports. ‘Cause being a Russian citizen meant possibility to get job in the nearest Nothern Ossetia or in other regions of RF. For old people getting RF passport is the only guarantee of getting pensions.
Now, think logically, if it was convenient for Russia which had quite a lot of other problems in the end of 90th – beggining of 2000?
Russia should make a corridor through Georgia to it’s ally,Armenia,if they don’t take all of Georgia first.
It’s payback time for all of those vili’s (Dhugshavili) supporters pay for their crimes.
Historical timeline – http://jotman.blogspot.com/2008/08/timeline-of-conflict-between-georgia.html
For Josh, see quote from CNN:
Saakashvili agreed the timing was not coincidental, but accused Russia of being the aggressor. “Most decision makers have gone for the holidays,” he told CNN. “Brilliant moment to attack a small country.”
GEORGIA IS THE AGGRESSOR!!
The following is quite clear now, if you exclude any emotions:
- Georgian preindent has sent his troops to settle it in S.Osetia. It is clear, that he has started the war, whatever the reasons he has
- There is a huge number of civilians dead – and they are NOT georgians. They are South Osetian people.
- BBC and CNN disinform whoever views it (it worked well with Iraq once, so why not again…?). For instance, they put more stress on a very few victims from the georgia side, georgian woman is crying from the BBC pic headlined “Russia has expanded the conflict with air strikes against targets in Georgia” – but ignore wounded and killed from osetian side (who are the majority)
I agree. I tried putting comments on BBC and CNN as to the fact that Georgia were the aggressor, but my message was never posted. The blog only contains information about Russian aggression!! It shows how bias some media can be.
Mass media can’t be completely objective. They always portray the interests of those in power.
Interesting thing is that Georgia reported that they had stricken down 12 Russian planes when Russian fighter pilots themselves say that there were only 4 fighter planes sent to the conflict zone. Hmmm.. Something to think about.
Alvin, Natalya,
you russians, talking about georgian agresion, you russian have done nothing than invade and steal others land. This is what you are good in! the whole world hates you.
Ossetia (Samachablo) is the Oldest Georgian territory and really (they have their peace keapers there, etc.) under control of Russia. Called as South Osetia-Ckhinvali Region. South Osetia is only virtual. They have criminal and illegal administration, same in Abkhazia -the oldest part of Georgia. Also is under the control of Russia now. The both autonomous Republics was created by Stalin during the USSR times to have control over all nations in the USSR. Now Russia wants to restore the USSR under Russian Federation. It is under KGB structure. As you know Putin and Medvedev are from KGB structure.
This happens because Georgia tries to integrate in Europe and NATO to have a real independence on its own territory. Russia uses its levers to control Georgia, so that we could not fulfil our aims.
After all Kokoit is nothing more than a small-time Moscow gangster who was selected by the Kremlin to conduct its political policy in South Ossetia. You all are bandits and criminal stealing Georgian land!
When you Ossetians have Russian pasports you know where to go! Leave Georgia!!! go back where you came from, Georgia gave you ossetian refugees shelter , now you steal their land, go back where you came from, or go to your beloved Russia if you are their citizens what the f you are doing on Georgian soil? Ossetia is and was for thousands of years Georgian heart Samachablo that you bandits stole it with the help of f russians!
PEOPLE!!!!! PLEASE!!!!!!!!!HELP TO SOUTH OSETIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
THIS IS THE WAR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WE DON’T KNOW WHAT WE CAN DO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
This message was from Tchinval(Osetia)////
People rescue us! We only wish to live! We survive, we live last hours! It is the Hell! Rescue us from the Georgian!!!!
Here we know the thrue http://southosetia.wordpress.com
My God, rescue us! How many it is possible to destroy innocent people which wants the world??? That is created now-it does not give in to human reason! I have left some hours prior to war! In Tchinval there was an aunt, to undertake, nephews, close friends! They ask about the help, and I can help nothing! Today in 5 mornings there was last communication with the friend: We shall not live till the morning!!!! Farewell!!! At me heart is broken off!!! UNDERSTAND??? A battery at all are unloaded! People have nothing to eat, there is no water!My native and favourite DIE, while the severe president of Georgia cherishs the dreams!
HELP US!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!OUR PEOPLE IS DIED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
GEORGIA WILL KILL OSETIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!