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February 20th, 2008
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Madagascar: After the storm Ivan, the aftermath
( photo via GAZETY_ADALADALA)
Tropical Cyclone Ivan has now left Madagascar leaving behind several regions in shambles and thousands of people without homes.
The official account by the authorities reports 2 deaths and 15,000 people without homes. Considering that Ivan was classified as a very severe cyclonic storm with winds at up to 137 km/h, many people are wondering what might be the final count of actual casualties and damages. As pointed out here, the intensity of the wind guts is similar to that of Hurricane Katrina.
One blogger reacts to the official temporary report (fr):
” Alors que des milliers de personnes ne sont pas recensées habituellement, comment peut-on savoir qu’il n’y a que deux morts à déplorer après un phénomène de cette ampleur ? Constat dérisoire lorsque l’on connaît l’état de l’habitat de ces régions”
The rescue effort, spearheaded by government agencies such as Apipa or BNGCR and NGOs, are already moving forward even though communication and transportation are still very difficult at this point.
The flow of information on the radio air and on the internet were unprecedented considering the magnitude of the disaster that frequently induced prolonged interruption of means of communication. People were sharing information via phone calls or SMS when possible and even blogs, online forums and videocasts.
A valiant effort was conducted by Joan to collect in one centralized place all the available updates under any formats about Cyclone Ivan. This led to an interactive map of up-to-date reports in several places.
Similarly, planete vivante was able to update the situation frequently and constructed a map of all the affected agglomerations and publish this striking sildeshow:
(via http://planetevivante.wordpress.com)
This also led to conflicting reports that bloggers were quick to point out.
We wrote earlier that 9 people were trapped under the ruins of Hotel Antsara in Sainte-Marie and reported dead. This information was relayed by several radio stations and newspapers before being infirmed by the government. We are glad that the 9 people are reported safe. Jentilisa warns (mg) of the danger of spreading too hastily unconfirmed informations. An explanation for the conflicting reports can be found here.
The lack of emergency feedback and the overall difficulties to communicate and provide urgent response are discussed by Tomavana (mg). He wonders why there is no equivalent of a toll free 911 in Madagascar.
Providing tools for keeping track of the cyclone and predicting its path was illustrated by Harinjaka.
The aftermath on the short and long term is difficult to foresee but most predictions are pessimistic. Flooding are already taking places in Antanarivo. As seen on the photoblog of avylavitra, there is reason for concerns in the capital city as well.
Here is a video posted by avyalvitra illustrating the alarming rise of the Ikopa river in Antananarivo, already invading real estate on a few habitations.
Kosovo: Views from the Russophone Blogosphere
According to the Yandex Blogs portal, over 3,700 posts on Kosovo independence have appeared in the Russian-language blogosphere in the past three days. Some of these posts have received dozens, if not hundreds, of comments.
Below are a few snippets of this lively discussion, all translated from Russian.
LJ user iraan reported from Kosovo on Feb. 15:
[…] In Kosovo, everyone is promising independence - even this hotel ad.
A picture of a roadside ad for a hotel in Kosovo's capital Priština accompanied the post; the ad read:
INDEPE
NDENCEHOTEL AFA IS READY
On Feb. 17, the day Kosovo declared independence, LJ user iraan wrote:
…Priština. Today
…celebrations are in full swing here already. Here you go, my dear ones
In the comments section, she later added two photos of happy-looking men waving Albanian flags. LJ user cqdx - who served in Kosovo (RUS) as part of Russia's peacekeeping mission, but is currently based in Geneve, Switzerland - noted:
[…] If at one point Yeltsin's Supreme Council hadn't chickened out and instead accepted Serbia as part of Russia, there wouldn't have been today's [orgy] in Kosovo. […]
In another Feb. 17 post, LJ user iraan made this observation about the flags she was seeing in Kosovo's capital:
…there are more stars and stripes in Priština than even the black eagles. It is obvious who the papa is and who is directing the process.
LJ user vikrussia left this comment:
How sad. I am speechless. There was hope until the very last moment. And now there's only one thought in my head: this is what they are going to do to us, too - “in a civilized manner,” [pretending to observe principles] of “legality” and “law.” The Slavic world has died. God has turned away from us. We have to figure out what for.
Serbia-based LJ user sanielisse wrote this on Feb. 19:
I've been reading and watching the news non-stop for the second day in a row. […] Kosovo, an independent state?
On Friday and Saturday, they began sending SMS's - “pray fro Kosovo… […]”
Where were you before? Why didn't you pray every day in Serbian temples for the rescue of Kosovo and its relics, and its Serbian people?
A female student at the university declared to me today: “I want to live and not to think about Kosovo…”
It's easy to sell your past. But then you'll be walking through a swamp.
After these words I joined the protest rally with my friends. My heart was aching…
Is this a protest, or a funeral of Kosovo, or a holiday? Not very clear… God, what can one understand here, in Serbia, when the president declares, “Be peaceful…” How could those who carried out the pogroms on Sunday night stay peaceful if the country's heart and soul had been torn out?
And if today you stopped those who were yelling “Kosovo is Serbia's heart” and asked WHAT IS KOSOVO, would many of them have an answer?
And no one but [Bishop Artemije] has mentioned that it's not just an attack on Serbia. It's a new blow to Orthodox Christianity.
[Abkhazia's Sergei Bagapsh] and [South Ossetia's Eduard Kokoity] said beautifully today: Serbia is a country well-established politically, it's not in turmoil, and a piece of it is being cut off only because two ethnic groups look at each other through gun muzzles… And what can be said about Georgia, a country that isn't well-established yet, which is permanently on fire, and into which North [sic] Ossetia and Abkhazia are being squeezed? […]
LJ user dreamy_tanger left this comment:
[…] Why wasn't your heart aching when [Slobodan Milošević] organized the genocide of Albanians and Bosniaks? Was Orthodox Christian “compassion” an obstacle? As for Kosovo, there's no use worrying about it anymore, it has not been part of Serbia de facto for a long time, now at least they'll be obliged to observe minorities' rights as an independent state.
LJ user drugoi, on Feb. 16, posted five photos of the pre-independence celebrations in Kosovo, titled his post, “Farewell, Serbia?” - and received four pages of comments. Here are some of them:
drakon_1 [Israel-based]:
Hurrah!!!
dtxysq [Russia-based]:
Hurrah?
sergey_sht [Ukraine-based]:
He doesn't live in Kosovo.
“Freedom and land to Palestine!”drakon_1:
Palestinians, too, should have a state of their own, with clearly defined borders - I don't see any contradiction in this.
sergey_sht:
Albanians also should have a state of their own with clearly defined borders. But for some reason they want Kosovo, too, just like Arabs want Jerusalem.
Don't you understand that it can't be just ‘We want it and that's it.' It's not as simple over there.
dao_b [Russia-based]:
Russians also should have a state of their own with clearly defined borders. But for some reason they want a small Russian republic on the territory of Moldova, too.
Don't you understand that it can't be just ‘We want it and that's it.'
***
polinsky_yard:
[…] Well, good luck to them.
Why are we saying farewell to Serbia as if it's something that belongs to us? We have no more rights for it than Americans.terskiy_kazak:
Oh-oh, are you serious?! [Count with me]: faith, language, history… Damn, we are the same people with Serbs! It's somehow awkward to even discuss this subject: it's like proving that the Earth is round…
LJ user shupa (originally from Belarus, currently based in Prague, Czech Republic) wrote this in the yugo_ru LJ community, whose focus is on “culture, history and literature of the former Yugoslav states”:
Someone has reminded us here today: “I'm reminding you that Kosovo is a historically Serbian territory, which, in the past half a century, has become dominated by Albanian population.”
What kind of term is that - “historically XXX territory”? If we start looking for all the historical territories and all those who are occupying them now, then Russians should be kicked out from behind [the Urals] or even closer (definitely [Smolensk], [Prussia], [Ingria]). And I'm not even talking about [the Americans]. Anyway, let's all return to the borders of the 14th century, when [the Grand Duchy of Lithuania] stretched from one sea to the other :)
The most important thing now is for them not to start killing one another again. As for all this screaming - we are not giving Kosovo away, Moscow is behind us - these are indeed [calls to action]. There must be plenty of them on the other side, too, only we don't see or hear them, and “the other” side isn't really advertising them. […]
LJ user michail wrote this:
[…] Serbian [dear brothers] deserve our sympathy, of course. But, honestly, would all that's happened be possible if Serbs hadn't exchanged their resistance will for the sweet promises of the Eurocommissars? One's gotta pay for “the European choice.” […]
I suspect that we need the proverbial solidarity with [dear Serbian brothers] more than Serbs do. I haven't forgotten yet that the [Russian mass awakening] began with the [1999 NATO bombing of Belgrade]. We were throwing stones at the U.S. embassy then and singing [Kosovo Front] all together - was it in vain? Cannon fire in Serbia awoke the Russian bear, ridding him of a whole package of the most dangerous illusions of the 1990s. […] And, thank God, it was someone else's war that served as a catalyst for national awakening. […]
LJ user michail ended his post with a video of a Corsican band “L'Arcusgi,” which included a Corsican female singers' performance of “the famous ‘Hegoak' - a patriotic anthem of [the Basque Country].”
Israel-based LJ user aristocrate was not sincere when he congratulated Europe on the birth of its “new child”:
I congratulate Europe with a new child - Kosovo!
And since the EU has so happily supported the unilaterally declared independence of a new Muslim state on its territory, I'm also wishing it to have many, many more kids: independent Catalonia, Corsica, Wallonia, Flanders, the Basque Country, Wales, and, somewhat later, Normandy, Ruhr, Gascony, Wallachia, Prussia, Sicily, etc.
You deserve it, idiots. […]
LJ user varfolomeev66, a Russian journalist, was “more concerned” with the fate of Russia than with that of “the USA and the leading European states. He wrote:
I'm trying to understand: our diplomats and those who sometimes listen to their recommendations - are they fools or enemies?
I'd like to have a look at the authors of the thesis on the “precedent-making nature of Kosovo case,” about which Putin and [Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov] have been talking incessantly for the past few months. Do they understand what they are doing?
I assume they […] were trying to intimidate Europe and America this way: like, Wales and Montana will follow Kosovo's example. But [they] ended up prescribing treatment that's worse than the disease itself.
The president, who has called the unilateral separation of Kosovo a precedent, has given [freedom to act] to our own, home-grown separatists. If, for example, Ingush, Karelian or [Primorye] comrades decided to split from Mother Russia, they would remind those who'd try to stop them that Putin himself had shown them the way! Wasn't it Putin who said that other peoples may follow after Kosovars - and we are following them!
[…]
Instead of emphasizing the uniqueness of the Kosovo case along with the countries of the West and talking of the impossibility of repeating it, our regime is voluntarily provoking our own secessionists. […]
LJ user freetatarstan - which is actually a “journal for those who support the idea of independence of [the Republic of Tatarstan]” - wrote:
KOSOVA!
Remember how some observers used to assert that as soon as Russia starts being nice to Abkhazia and Ossetia in response to Kosovo's independence, the national autonomies of the Russian Federation will raise their voices as well…
Well, what can you say to this… We wouldn't want to disappoint them… […]
Kyrgyzstan: Leading University at the Center of Parliamentary Debates
During the last week, one of the most discussed topics among Kyrgyz bloggers was the situation around the American University in Central Asia. As its website says, AUCA has an established reputation for “dedication to democratic values, individual freedoms and the spirit of innovation”, and, indeed, it has played an important role in the region's educational field and grew into one of the academic leaders in Central Asia.
However, on February 15, the Jogorku Kenesh [Parliament] deputy Ishak Masaliev raised [ru] the issue of AUCA’s location and gave a commission to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Education and Culture to address his concerns.
The main argument was that the building of the university has a historical importance as it used to be home for the Kyrgyz government in Soviet times. He also alleged that the majority of AUCA students come from rich and highly-ranked officials’ families, while poor students from regions make up a very small percentage.
This statement spurred a heated discussion in the blogosphere. (more…)
Spanish reactions to Kosovo's independence
Two days after Kosovo's declaration of independence in spite of Serbia's opposition, the debate about the merits of recognising it as a state is still raging. According to the website Kosova Thanks You, so far 17 countries have recognized the new Republic of Kosovo and 34 others are ready to do so. Within the European Union, countries such as France, UK, Germany or Italy have recognized it, while others such as Slovakia and Spain have strongly opposed it as they consider that the declaration does not respect international law.
However, Spain vehemently protested to Russia a few days ago over remarks by President Vladimir Putin in which he likened the situation in Kosovo to that in Spain's Basque and Catalan regions. For the Spanish government, Kosovo has nothing to do either with Catalonia or with the Basque Country.
Bloggers in Catalonia have been debating the issue intensely during the last few days. While supporters of an independent Catalonia have welcomed Kosovo's independence with campaigns like adding a banner recognizing the new state or including the title “Today Kosovo, Tomorrow Catalonia” in as many blogs as possible, other Catalan bloggers agree with the position of the Spanish government.
Diari del votant anònim [cat] thinks that Scotland is a much better model to admire, and Joan Safont [cat] thinks that Kosovo should not be dismissed as an example to follow by other European regions with aspirations of sovereignty:
It is not comparable with Catalonia or the Basque Country. However, I think that any process towards sovereignty in Europe should take it into consideration. That's the reason why we are so repeatedly told that the two cases are different.
[…] Kosovo might not be our mirror, but every time that a new state says freely what and how it wants to be, the world becomes freer.
Narcís Sastre [cat], however, is not sure about what to think:
I can't help but having contradictory feelings. On one hand, as a defender of people's right to self-determination, I am happy for Kosovo, but I can't help feeling a certain empathy with Serbia, who is witnessing the loss of a territory with a great symbolic and historical value.
The Basque government, on the other hand, expressed its enthusiasm even before Kosovo's declaration of independence considering it an example of “how to solve identity and belonging conflicts in a peaceful and democratic way”. Basque senator Iñaki Anasagasti also applauded Kosovo's move in his blog [es]:
The best news of the week have been the independence of Kosovo. Not a single bullet shot, not a single kale borroka action, with a new president visiting the Serbs in Kosovo assuring them that the new country in which everybody will live without discrimination and with respect.
These statements have stirred controversy on the issue and have been rejected by a wide array of Spanish blogs and forums, that consider that Basque politicians like Anasagasti “live in a parallel reality”. A user of the social portal Menéame ironically says:
So in Kosovo there was no genocide, there was no bombing by NATO, it's not an occupied country in which only the presence of foreign forces guarantees the peace, there are no old hatreds… all of that took place in my imagination.
For Francisco Veiga [es], what is at stake in Europe after Kosovo's independence is not that it may create a precedent for other territories, but the type of precedent that it is:
[…] What is being debated here is not the old byzantine-politological discussion about the intangibility of really existing borders or the hypothetical “domino effect” on Iberian sovereignty movements. The issue at stake is another.
The central problem […] is that Washington and Brussels are recognizing, de facto and de jure, the validity of the armed way to achieve nationalist political objectives in the European continent. Or more precisely, the old basic principle of “action-reaction” of guerrilla and terrorist groups since more than a century. Because that's what is shown by the fact that the current Albanian-Kosovar Prime Minister of Kosovo is Hashin Thaçi, a former guerrilla commander of UÇK whose code name was “Snake.” Or that another Prime Minister, Ramush Haradinaj, also a former military leader of UÇK, is being tried in the ICTY in The Hague for War Crimes.
He also adds, in his latest post, that the EU has unknowingly managed to align most Balkan countries in their lack of enthusiasm for Kosovo's declaration of independence, and criticizes EU's role in the process:
In fact, EU's behavior in the Balkans doesn't differ all that much from the one that European hegemonic powers would have adopted a century ago. Actually, it's the perfect anniversary: 1908-2008. The first date marks the annexation by the Austro-Hungarian Empire of what was then the protectorate of Bosnia-Hercegovina, which led to the Great War five years later.
Although in his blog Cartas del Este [es] Basque professor Asier Blas didn't support Kosovo's independence, he is is optimistic about the benefits of the new state of Kosovo for its Serbian minority:
At the end of the day [Kosovo] is not for me and not for you, not for Albania nor Serbia, it's for Kosovars. And in the long term this move especially favors the Serbs, because if Kosovo manages to establish itself as an entity with its own uniqueness, the ghosts of a future Greater Albania will be left behind […]
We should add to all this the opportunities that the future membership to the European Union will bring. If it happens not too far away in the future, the outcome will be that the Albanian and Serbian populations will have a very free relationship with Albania and Serbia. Newspapers from Serbia will reach Serbian-Kosovars, as well as TV stations and other cultural products. There will not be boundaries and regional economic integration will be underway, which will make it possible to play down the limits of the current states.
Caribbean: Castro - End of an Era?
Havana from Habana Libre, courtesy Caribbean Free Photo
The buzz in the regional blogosphere for the last twenty-four hours has undoubtedly been the retirement of Cuban leader Fidel Castro after nearly 50 years at the helm of the socialist republic. The announcement hardly came as a surprise, what with the last couple of years of anti-Castro bloggers closely following reports of the leader's deteriorating health and speculating as to whether or not he was even alive. This is probably not the way the blogosphere expected him to go out - The Latin Americanist, in linking to a variety of mainstream media sources and public reactions to the news, observes that The Guardian article was “reminiscent of an obit” - and most bloggers appear to be skeptical as to whether the move precedes any significant change for Cuba…
According to Babalu Blog:
If there is, as the international media conglomerate seems to think, real change coming to Cuba now that fidel has stepped aside, does that mean:
Cuban high school students are free to wear white plastic bracelets embossed with the word CAMBIO without fear of arrest? Does it mean that state security thugs will no longer assault dissidents because they ask for human rights? I didn't think so.
26th Parallel explains:
After all, it's another castro in charge now. It's still the same regime that's been in control for 5 decades. There's not much optimism contained in those facts.
On the other hand, this will likely be the first test of fidel's “cult of personality” image and its hold on the Cuban people. Actually, it's more of a quiz, because the real test will be when he finally kicks the bucket.
Juan Antonio Blanco writes in his blog (ES)Cambio de Época:
Algunas de las primeras reacciones a la noticia de la renuncia de Fidel Castro a ser reelecto por la nueva Asamblea parecen discurrir entre quienes consideran que el hecho es irrelevante y aquellos que son dados a magnificar su alcance. Hay una distinción entre la certeza de que la elite intentará, en lo adelante, cambiar todo lo que pueda para mantener su monopolio de poder y la pretensión de minimizar lo ocurrido. Suponer que, salvo el cambio de nombres en la cima del poder, todo permanecerá igual es una apuesta arriesgada.
Lo cierto es que la renuncia del Comandante en Jefe, permite que la nueva Asamblea Nacional respete la Constitución y sus propios reglamentos que exigen traspasos formales de esos cargos por razones de salud. Continuamos atravesando un periodo bisagra entre dos épocas. Parafraseando a Galileo diré que Cuba se mueve. ¿Hacia dónde? Esa es otra discusión.
What is certain is that the Commander-in-Chief's resignation allows the new National Assembly to respect the Constitution and its own rules that demand a formal transfer of public office for health reasons. We are still going through a decisive period between two eras. Paraphrasing Galileo I'll say that Cuba is moving. To where? That's another discussion.
There is, in fact, a lot of discussion taking place - at least online. The Cuban Triangle says:
The meaning for Cuban policy is not clear. Fidel plans “to fight as a soldier in the battle of ideas,” and he will continue to write his newspaper commentaries. But the force of his orthodox ideas will probably wane in a government that is seeking solutions to deep-seated economic problems created by excessive centralization and planning, not to mention lack of economic freedom.
As for American policy, change is unlikely, given U.S. law and the Bush Administration’s approach. Any shift in policy or exploration for opportunities will likely come in a new Administration next year.
In the meantime, Fidel Castro is leaving on his own terms, at a time of his choosing. Neither invasion, nor covert operations, nor embargo, nor a steady strengthening of U.S. sanctions since 1992, nor the current Administration’s myriad efforts have forced him from office.
“Castro's supporters admired his ability to provide a high level of health care and education for citizens while remaining fully independent of the United States,” writes 1Click2Cuba, adding: “Castro's detractors called him a dictator whose totalitarian government systematically denied individual freedoms and civil liberties such as speech, movement and assembly.”
The latter group appears to be the more vocal on the issue. Marc Masferrer at Uncommon Sense writes:
An unfortunate consequence of that hand-over, reinforced by Fidel's “retirement,” is that the dictatorship survives. A face, presumably Raúl's — I haven't seen the script — will be placed at the top of the flow chart, come Sunday. But the dictatorship survives.
The secret police. The Committees in Defense of the Revolution. The gulag…
Fidel's “retirement” is not a moment to celebrate. Unfortuntely, his legacy will survive his life's work, and his life. It is a historical moment to note but nothing more.
Ernesto Hernández Busto writes in (ES) Penúltimos Días:
Por mucha expectativa que provoque en una prensa sedienta de sucesos simbólicos, la renuncia voluntaria de Fidel Castro tras 49 años de férreo mandato es, para decirlo con pocas palabras, uno de los grandes fracasos de nuestra historia política, visiblemente encapsulada en el arbitrio de un líder octogenario y su visión dinástica del mando. Resulta comprensible que, por el momento, ni en Cuba ni en el exilio sobren las ganas de celebrar. Pues, en cualquier caso, lo único que podría festejarse es que todo está saliendo según el guión dictado desde el Palacio de la Revolución.
No matter how many expectations are raised by the press, thirsty of symbolic events, Fidel Castro's voluntary resignation after 49 years of fierce mandate is, put in just a few words, one of the biggest failures of our political history, visibly encapsulated in the will of an eighty-year-old leader and his dynastic vision of the command. It is understandable that, for the time being, in Cuba or in exile, the mood to celebrate is lacking. In any case, the only thing to celebrate would be that everything is happening according to the script dictated from the Palacio de la Revolución.
Review of Cuban-American Blogs adds:
Whatever he has been since his physical and mental decline, Castro will continue to be. Nothing has changed for him or Cuba. Nevertheless, he will be praised and congratulated for his decision by friends and enemies alike. Much will be made of Castro's “retirement” by the world media: “the end of an era” and such.
I hope sincerely that my countrymen in Miami will not be fooled by this empty gesture and celebrate this event as some kind of opening or hopeful sign. It is not. When a hole is finally dug in the ground for him, celebrate then, although that will not mean the end of Communist tyranny either, at least it will mean the end of the tyrant.
The criticism is not confined to Cuban bloggers either. Barbados Free Press posts a photograph of Castro and former Barbados Prime Minister Owen Arthur in an embrace, with the words: “Remembering the executed, the disappeared, the imprisoned…”, while Bahamian blogger Dan Schweissing says:
Given the rise of numerous strong populist movements and governments in Latin America while the United States has spent most of this decade quigmired in the War on Terror, it is certainly possible that Cuba will have a lot more latitude to shape its own future than it would have, say, even ten or fifteen years ago. Regardless of where Cuba is headed though, the reality is that things are changing and those changes–whatever they may be–will be big enough to significantly impact the rest of us throughout the Caribbean.
But those that are probably impacted most strongly by Castro's resignation are those who still live in Cuba. Yoani Sánchez writes from Havana in her blog (ES) Generación Y:
Toda mi vida la he pasado con el mismo presidente. No sólo yo, sino que mi mamá y mi papá –nacidos en el 57 y en el 54, respectivamente- tampoco recuerdan a otro, que no sea el que hoy se ha despedido de sus cargos. Varias generaciones de cubanos no se han hecho nunca la pregunta de quién los gobernará. Tampoco ahora tenemos muchas dudas de cuál persona ocupará el máximo puesto, pero al menos hay alguien que parece definitivamente descartado. Como en esos filmes de Alfred Hitchcock nos hemos enterado, sólo cinco días antes de las elecciones, que nuestros disciplinados parlamentarios se enfrentarán a una boleta diferente; que no tendrán que marcar al lado del “mismo” candidato.
I have lived all my life under the same president. Not only me, but also my mom and my dad -born in 57 and 54, respectively- don't remember another one either, except for the one that today said farewell to public office. Several generations of Cubans have never asked themselves about who is going to govern them. We don't have many doubts about who will now take the main seat, but at least there's someone that seems definitely ruled out. As in a Hitchock film we have learnt only 5 days before the elections that our disciplined MPs will be facing a different ballot this time; that they will not have to mark the “same” candidate.
Links for Wed, 2008-02
History of Volga cars - at Windows to Russia!
Albanian Blogger posts an image “portraying Kosova’s declaration of independence from Serbia” - along with a “personal disclaimer.”
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