These “revolutions” managed to shift the politics of their respective countries, and many democracy activists believed the pattern might be extended to other countries in the Caucasus and Central Asia. In the end, the new political forces fell into familiar tracks, and the rest of the Central Asian leaders took the lesson that they should crack down on democracy movements before they start (the worst example being the massacre in Andijon, Uzbekistan.)

That didn't stop Dodojon Atovulloev/Atoullo, a Tajik journalist who has published a Tajik-language newspaper in Russia since the 1990s, from declaring in 2007 that he was forming a new movement called “Vatandor” (”Patriot”) which he hoped would would eventually result in a “Violet Revolution.” He claimed he would be able to challenge the Rahmon government by appealing to the thousands of Tajiks living and working in Russia. Those expat Tajiks contribute a significant portion of the economy of Tajikistan through their remittances.

The state prosecutor of Tajikistan recently announced charges of slander and “destabilizing the country,” and there was speculation that the charges would become a pretext to request Atovulloev's extradition from Russia.

Atovolloev, who had resided in Moscow but possessed a residency permit for Germany, fled Moscow on a plane to Paris. In an interview with Darius at A Dervish [tj], he explains that he chose a flight to Paris because he thought that the Russian government might be expecting him to fly to Germany. Western press agencies were also invited to videotape his departure, in the hope that their presence would prevent his arrest or detention.

The journalist has had his ups and downs with the government of Tajikistan. In 1992, the government sought to prosecute him for meetings with the opposition coalition that fought against Rahmon in the Tajik civil war of the 1990s. In 1998, the prosecutor charged him with libeling the president. In 2001, Atovulloev was arrested at the airport in Moscow, although he was later released.

Then, in 2002, as part of a general amnesty, the Tajik government pardoned Atovulloev and invited him back to Tajikistan as part of an effort to promote reconciliation and garner international credibility. He cut his first visit back to Tajikistan short, claiming that he had been followed and threatened. He returned to Moscow and continued to publish his newspaper, “Charogh-i Ruz” (”Daily Beacon”).

In his most recent interview, Atovulloev says that the Tajik government tried to woo him back to Tajikistan, but that he refused:

Atovullo revealed that representatives of the Rahmon administration approached him in 2007 to explore a political deal. “Last year, Rahmon’s closest aids negotiated with me almost for six months,” he said. “They tried to convince me to return to Tajikistan, to get a portfolio or pocket a huge sum of money in exchange for my silence. After I gave them cold shoulder they resumed my criminal case.”

Also in his interview with Darius, he asserts that democratic voices are the only thing that can restrain a religious backlash:

Another misfortune is that if the remaining democratic forces in Tajikistan are defeated, there's a 100% chance of a Tajik Taliban entering the political arena, or that they would win a victory. Today we see that the youth of Tajikistan don't have anywhere to go but to the mosque to sit at the foot of demagogic mullahs. This is a lost generation.

As of today, there is little evidence of a wide-scale Islamic political movement in Tajikistan, mostly because of the strict measures the Rahmon regime has applied to the religious establishment. How accurate Atovulloev's assessment is, and how influential his voice is, is hard to gauge. But the Rahmon government clearly sees him as a large enough threat to direct so much public attention at him.

If you've been reading Beyond the River over the last few months, then the name John Helmer should be familiar to you. Helmer is a journalist based in Moscow working as a correspondent for South Africa's Business Week, The Weekender, and Mineweb, writing about the mineral and metals industries.

At some point, Helmer picked up on the story of Talco, Tajikistan's state-owned aluminum company. It's a story that's had a lot of twists and turns, so I won't rehash all the details again here. Suffice it to say that the Tajik government is suing former partners in Talco in a London court, and spending gigantic sums of money on legal fees which add up to a big chunk of the country's GDP.

Simultaneous with this court case is the affair of Hassan Sadulloev/Asadulloev, President Rahmon's brother-in-law. By many accounts, President Rahmon's son Rustam shot Sadulloev dead in May. Other accounts say that he's still alive and flying around in helicopters. Or maybe it's his twin brother, Hussein.

These two things are connected why? Because Sadulloev ran the bank (Orionbonk) that ran a scheme to divert Talco's income into offshore bank accounts in the British Virgin Islands. Accounts which belong to unnamed private persons. The only reason we know any of this is because Rahmon foolishly sued his former partners in the scheme in a London court. So it's pretty easy just to go down to the court and request the documents.

Add to this the IMF, which is getting less and less patient with Tajikistan. Last March it was revealed that the Tajik government would have to pay back $47 million in poverty-reduction loans to the IMF because Tajikistan had lied on the application. And most recently, the IMF issued a report saying that Tajikistan had to make the operation of Talco more transparent (and in the process revealed the scope of the illegal scheme to put profits in offshore accounts: a billion dollars).

You knew it had to happen eventually. Talco, or the Tajik government, or a reporter named Almaz Nazarov, has responded [ru].

You might think that the article would respond to the allegations and quote government and Talco sources saying that there's nothing to the story's allegations of corruption and that the Tajik government will cooperate with the IMF.

Instead, the story's author focuses on attacking John Helmer personally:

All the Helmer articles, basically, are connected with the court lawsuits of TALCO (as is known, the Tajik company pursues for a second year in the international courts the former traders of the factory - the Ansol Ltd company and the Russian UC Rusal). The chain links to these companies. They more than anyone else are interested in the deterioration of Talco’s foreign image TALCO and the creations of a negative image of the company in western business circles.

Continuing our small investigation and browsing on the Helmer site, we find out that on the same level with TALCO it ruthlessly “floods” also Russian Rusal.

Now by a simple process of elimination it is possible to identify the number-one candidate among customers for the Helmer service such as “support of judicial lawsuits” — Ansol Ltd. and its head Avaz Nazarov.

Oh, of course, Helmer must be in the pay of Ansol (the target of the Talco suit in London). And of course, Almaz Nazarov is an independent Tajik journalist whom no government is paying.

The article, which you can read yourself, basically whines that Helmer twisted the publicly available words of Rahmon and the IMF, didn't allow Talco to comment (although every article by Helmer includes a line about how his calls to the company have not been returned), and that actually the “tolling” practice that Talco has used is standard industry practice.

It ends with this bizarre coda:

P.S. The publication FK-Capital has made an inquiry on Monday [September 15] at the IMF Representation in the Republic of Tajikistan, concerning the Helmer article. However, an answer has not been received. Mr. Moers has written the comment to the address of Talco, which has been readdressed to us at our request by the company’s press-service. We consider the fact of the refusal of the IMF to answer our questions an indirect recognition of the fault in the distortion by the Mineweb journalist of their data and as consequence, the deterioration of image of Tajikistan. It is obvious that the founders of reports in the IMF should weigh more carefully their definitions and terms which, in consequence, were not required for further explanations or refutations.

Ha! The IMF is refusing to answer Almaz Nazarov's questions, just like Talco refuses to return Helmer's calls. The circle is unbroken.

Cross-posted at Beyond the River.